Newsletter – May 2021

Al Majal Technical Services (AMTS) has come together with Score (Europe) Limited (a Score Group company) to form a joint venture in Basrah.

Al Majal Logistics Services (AMLS) participated as an exhibitor with one of its brand representations in Iraq, Milwaukee PowerTools, at the Reconstruct Iraq 2021 which was held between May 26 and May 29th at the Erbil International Fair.

Daily coronavirus cases in Iraq fell from an all-time high of 8,696 in April 21 down to 2,058 in mid-May. Active cases, after reaching an all-time high of 112,140 on April 23, are now gradually falling. The sudden spike in CoVid-19 cases is caused mainly by the new strain identified in February after the removal of a travel blacklist on 21 international locations. Subsequently, Iraqi authorities approved a full curfew from May 12 to May 22, which was eased later to a partial curfew from 9 pm to 5 am, with malls, restaurants, cafes and other public facilities to remain closed. Daily deaths continue falling, with an overall recovery rate reaching 92.6%. Iraq began its vaccination rollout in early March, with first batches of the Pfizer-BioNTech, Oxford-AstraZeneca, and Sinopharm vaccines arriving in the country.

Economic revival hinges on the country’s energy sector, where several high-profile developments have taken place in recent weeks, with oil exports in April increasing to 3.39 Mb/d. Yet, revenues fell to US$ 5.525 B, down from US$ 5.787 B in March, with the average price of Iraqi crude standing at US$ 62.505/bbl in April, down from US$ 63.371/bbl in March. The 2021 Budget, first presented in December, was finally approved on March 31, preserving the country’s recent currency devaluation (~23% to the US dollar), and projecting a spending budget of US$ 89.7 B and a dinar-denominated deficit of US$ 19.5 B. Iraq expects to earn oil revenues of US$ 47.5 B[1] based on an oil price of US$ 45/b and ~3.5 Mb/d of exports, which, in dinars, should significantly improve state earnings. This has caused Fitch Ratings to revise the Outlook on Iraq’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Stable from Negative and affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘. 3.5 Mb/d is a significant jump from Iraq’s current ~3 Mb/d exports, which it is hoping to realize from new production from state-run fields that have had to keep production shut-in due to OPEC+ constraints.

A roundup of the latest developments in the Iraqi energy markets is summarized in the table below.

OPEC forecasts 2021 demand to increase by 6 Mb/d, reflecting the positive economic impact on oil demand during H2 2021, encouraged by accelerated vaccination campaigns boosting transportation fuels’ outlook, leading to stronger economic indicators. Non-OECD demand will continue improving due to positive momentum from Q4 2020 carrying forward in China with growth projected to continue increasing in H2 2021, due to a combination of factors, including successful containment measures, and the encouraging outcome of fiscal and monetary stimulus programmes. Oil demand might still be impacted by India’s recent surge in CoVid-19 through May and June, placing Q2 2021 oil demand performance in question. In addition, new lockdowns in Asia (such as in India and Singapore), a patchy vaccination rollout in countries other outside the GCC, and weaker economic momentum in Iran, Iraq, and Oman could drag demand down.

Overall Middle East demand increased by 134 kb/d in March over February levels. Lifted restrictions along with improvements in mobility might cause demand to pick up pace in H2 2021. Demand for oil products in Saudi Arabia has posted healthy gains in recent months, averaging just over 2 Mb/d in March, mainly due to growing mobility as the country charges ahead with its vaccination campaign. PMIs have stabilized, even though economic activity has not yet reached pre-CoVid-19 levels. This has informed some noteworthy deals in the energy sector in recent weeks, summarized in the following table.

 

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has announced finalized oil exports for April of 88.4 million barrels, giving an average for the month of 2.95 million barrels per day (bpd), effectively the same as the number of barrels exported in March.

The Rumaila Operating Organization (ROO) has announced its 2020 performance results. The field’s oil production rate averaged 1.392 million barrels per day (bpd), despite the impact of COVID-19, a budget reduction and compliance with instructions from BOC to reduce oil production, which reflected OPEC+’s request for Iraq to curtail oil exports.