Newsletter – December 2020

Al Majal Logistics Services (AMLS) is proud to have been assigned as the official distributor of the UPS products and services of ABB with coverage across the whole of Iraq.

Every year, Al Majal Business Park (AMBP) hosts a Christmas dinner at both properties in Burjessia and North Rumaila.

Daily coronavirus cases in Iraq have declined to an average of 1100 in December, an 80% drop from the peak of 5,505 daily cases in September. Travel to and from eight countries (UK, South Africa, Australia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Iran, and Japan) has been banned after a new strain of the coronavirus spreads in these territories[1]. Daily deaths, meanwhile, have reduced by a remarkable 90% from a high of 122 in June, with overall recovery reaching near 90%. Iraq has inked a preliminary deal with Pfizer-BioNtech for 1.5 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine to arrive in the early New Year, which should bolster domestic demand sentiment somewhat.

Economic revival hinges on the country’s energy sector, where several high-profile developments have taken place in recent weeks, even though exports in November have declined marginally to cut back towards OPEC+ compliance. A draft 2021 budget, which was approved on December 22, sets a record deficit of US$ 43.4 B, raising concerns over how quickly and surely energy plans could return support to the economy. This follows approval of the devaluation of the Iraqi Dinar by ~23% against the dollar to allow the government to generate more dinars from dollar-denominated oil sales. A potential downside is the likely increase in inflation, cost-of living expenses, and negative impact on contractors awaiting payment denominated in dinars.

A roundup of the latest developments in the Iraqi energy markets is summarized in the table below.

Bearish market sentiment is expected to continue weighing on world oil demand outlook for the remainder of the year and into the first quarter of the New Year. A key contributor to the less-than-positive demand outlook is continued bearishness surrounding the return of road and transportation fuel demand in OECD Europe, now that various EU governments and some jurisdictions in the US have re-introduced curfews and partially or fully shutdown hospitality services, and with the emergence of a more contagious Covid-19 strain. Non-OECD demand might improve slightly due to positive momentum from Q3/Q4 carrying forward in China, where industrial activity indicators and petrochemical activity have improved. The situation should improve after Q1 as vaccination becomes increasingly widespread and effective.

In the Middle East, overall demand is expected to contract by 380 kb/d in Q4 2020 from Q3 levels, even though consumption had surged by near 970 kb/d in the third quarter, compared to Q2 levels of 6.91 Mb/d. Seasonality is expected to play a large part in demand reduction due to the winter season, especially in the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, as well as the continuation of social distancing measures, work and school from home, mobility restrictions, and travel restrictions on tourists and visitors from the EU, South Africa, and Australia, as a new coronavirus strain spreads. PMIs have stabilized, even though economic activity remains slow, reflected in lower diesel consumption. This has informed some noteworthy deals in the energy sector in recent weeks, summarized in the following table.

Top Energy Deals in the Region

The Iraqi Cabinet has approved a refinery project with a capacity of 100,000 barrels per day in Dhi Qar province.

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has announced initial oil exports for November of 81.3 million barrels.

Iraq is to renew the contract to drill three new directional (non-vertical) oil wells in the East Baghdad oil field.

Russia’s Gazprom Neft is planning to launch a fourth well at the Sarqala field in the Kurdistan region in the first half of 2021.

OPEC+ will take a more hands-on approach to global oil markets now that it plans to meet more frequently according to leaders within the group, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

China’s state-run Zhenhua Oil is set to sign a multibillion-dollar contract with the Iraqi government for long-term oil supply.